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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Big Election Losers: Pollsters

National Review writes that, according to an American expert, one group is consistently losing elections worldwide—pollsters.

Referring to an article by polling expert Nate Silver, NR reported that pollsters missed big conservative margins in the Scottish independence referendum, the 2014 U.S. midterm elections, Israel’s recent elections for the Knesset and last week’s elections in the United Kingdom. Silver listed difficulties in methodologies and contacting voters, and listed instances where pollsters withheld significant results because they ran counter to popular consensus.

A1F has reported problems with polls that claim a decline in gun ownership, too. It’s far more likely that they only measure the percentage of gun owners who will tell a strange caller they own guns. Massive rises in sales as reported by manufacturers, the number of background checks conducted, and the number of new gun owners taking classes are far better indicators of the true state of gun ownership.