America’s gun-control debate has flipped on its head. New data from former President Joe Biden’s (D) tenure reveals a sobering truth that Second Amendment advocates have warned about for years.
According to new analysis from the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), violent crime surged 59% during Biden’s four years in office—the largest increase on record.
Those numbers come from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), a data set that captures both reported and unreported crimes. The trend stands in sharp contrast to the 15% drop in violent crime seen during President Donald Trump’s (R) first term, according to the same data sources.
When Biden took office in January 2021, the country was already grappling with a pandemic spike in violence. His administration promised that stricter gun regulations, from red-flag laws to expanded background checks to limits on private sales, would help reverse the trend. But by the end of 2024, the opposite had occurred.
The CPRC’s review of the NCVS found that rapes and sexual assaults rose 67%, robberies climbed 38% and aggravated assaults jumped 62% under Biden’s tenure. Even comparing 2024 to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, violent crime remained up 22%, the second-largest five-year increase since federal records began tracking victimization rates.
At the same time, fewer Americans were reporting crimes to the police. Between 2010 and 2019, about 63% of violent crimes were reported; however, that figure fell to less than half, 48.8%, during Biden’s last three years in office. Arrests plummeted just as steeply. Only 16.6% of violent crimes resulted in arrests during that period, compared with 26.5% during the previous decade.
Those twin declines—fewer crimes reported and fewer arrests made—resulted in victims who were less likely to see justice and criminals who were more likely to act without consequence.
In contrast, President Trump’s first term saw both a decline in violent crime and a surge in lawful firearm ownership. By 2020, the number of Americans with concealed-carry permits exceeded 22 million, a rise of over 60% from 2016.
That expansion coincided with reforms emphasizing deterrence, such as support for law-enforcement funding, tough-on-crime sentencing and a broad defense of constitutional-carry laws at the state level. The message was simple: When responsible citizens are empowered to defend themselves, communities become less attractive targets for violent offenders.
Today, under Trump’s renewed leadership, the White House has returned to that focus by rejecting broad federal gun-control measures and urging states to strengthen concealed-carry reciprocity, self-defense statutes and penalties for felonies where firearms are used in the commission of crimes.
The federal government’s own numbers largely support the CPRC’s conclusions about the Biden-era surge. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports show that in 2021 and 2022, murder and aggravated assault rates rose to levels not seen in decades. In 2024, the FBI reported a modest national decline—violent crime fell 4.5%, and murder dropped nearly 15%—but those improvements came after years of steep escalation.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics found that Americans experienced 23.3 violent victimizations per 1,000 people in 2024—up sharply from 15.5 in 2019. The largest increases occurred in suburban areas, where violent crime rose 64%, compared to 53% in urban centers.
For pro-Second Amendment advocates, those numbers underscore the central point: gun restrictions don’t reduce violence. To reduce violence, you have to go after the bad actors.
With Trump back in the Oval Office and a pro-Second Amendment majority in Congress, the political terrain has shifted. Trump’s administration is already reviewing federal gun regulations passed between 2021 and 2024, including the “pistol brace” rule and funding incentives for red-flag laws.
Supporters argue that restoring lawful access to firearms and reversing burdensome regulations are key steps toward personal and national security. The logic aligns with decades of research showing that armed citizens prevent crimes every day.
Subsequently, Biden’s record is a cautionary tale. Restrictive policies regarding firearms were introduced, but criminals remained well-armed and increasingly brazen, while law-abiding citizens found themselves less capable of defending their homes and families as they, naturally, obeyed the law.
As President Trump renews his commitment to empower lawful gun owners, the data suggest a simple truth: restoring safety begins with respecting our rights.
